
The Academy has come up with a new way to pick nominees that no one has ever used before, so who will be able to understand and take advantage of the new rules? This is another example of how the campaign counts, no matter how much anyone wants us to believe the Oscars are all about the art.
Which movies will be nominated for Best Picture?
The Artist
War Horse
The Descendants
Bridesmaids
The Help
HugoThis year, to be nominated for Best Picture, the movie must receive at least 5% of the first place votes cast, which means a film with a passionate base of voters will be able to overcome one that might have more support, but tepid support.
Being everyone's second or third favorite movie won't help very much (which is why I think
Moneyball and
Midnight in Paris get
stepped over like Fredo). Yes,
Midnight in Paris has support from the Producers, Directors, Writers and Screen Actors guilds, which in another year would make it a sure thing for a Best Picture nominee, but I have yet to hear anyone anywhere argue
Midnight in Paris is the best movie of the year. It is in your top five, when being #1 counts more than ever this year.
Additionally, The Academy has determined we will have anywhere from 5 to 10 nominees, as opposed to the set number of 10 nominees we have enjoyed the past few years. If 7 movies have 5% of the first place votes, we get 7 nominees, so good luck trying to predict the number of nominees on top of all of that.
Because of all of this, I think
Bridesmaids gets a nomination. While it is not uncommon for a comedy to be nominated for Best Picture, so many of the recent comedy pictures with nominations had some sort of drama element to them (
Lost in Translation,
Sideways,
Little Miss Sunshine,
Juno,
The Kids Are All Right).
Bridesmaids, even with its sense of heart and soul, is about as comical as a comedy gets, and many voters want to see a true comedy included with true dramas, which is why the movie has been nominated at the Producers Guild and Screen Actors Guild awards.
Also, I think
War Horse gets a nomination because the old guard of Hollywood will coalesce around this movie as a traditional, big movie Best Picture nominee. I still think it is Bore Horse, but fans of sweeping epics have embraced
War Horse.
The Help,
The Artist and
The Descendants have all been included in just about every awards' discussion from critics groups to Golden Globes to Guild awards, so you have to consider them locks for nominations (with
The Artist emerging as a frontrunner after winning Best Picture at The Producers Guild Awards), while
Hugo has support from the Directors and Producers guilds, as well as an early win at the National Bord of Review, which shocked everyone and propelled it into the discussion for an Oscar.
Who could shock and surprise? Watch out for
The Tree of Life. It is one of the most devisive movies of the year, but people who support it truly, passionately love it, which could help if these fans and voters list it as their first place choice.
I hope you get a chance to enjoy the announcements on Tuesday morning around 8:38 AM EST. We'll talk about the nominees all week long.
Recent Comments