Oscar Predictions - Part 1

The Oscar nominations have been made, so now the guessing, campaigning, and whispering begins!  However, this year's Oscar race will be a bit different than in years past.

Due to a scheduling quirk, we have almost nothing happening between the day of the nominations and the actual ceremony on March 7.  In past years, the Screen Actors Guild, Directors Guild, Golden Globes, critics awards and more have occurred during the final balloting for the Oscars, but, this year, all were conducted before the nominations were announced. 

This means the Hollywood studios and their high priced campaign machines could have more impact than in recent years.  The publicity teams orchestrate a complex combination of advertising, public statements, behind the scenes chatter and schmoozing between nominees and voters to capture the bald golden guy, and this year will give them more chances to influence the electorate. 

Even with all of that taken into consideration, this year's frontrunners have become very apparent, so it's time to make my first round of Oscar predictions.    

Sure, I will wimp out and revise these predictions if one of our nominees does something outrageous (I'm looking at you Quentin Tarantino), but don't count on it.

Check back on Thursday for Part 2, where I'll predict Best Director, Best Animated Feature, Best Documentary and Best Picture!  Will James Cameron be King of the World, again?

Best Actor

Jeff Bridges (Crazy Heart)

George Clooney (Up In The Air)

Jeremy Renner (The Hurt Locker)

Morgan Freeman (Invictus)

Colin Firth (A Single Man)

And the winner will be ... Jeff Bridges for Crazy Heart.  

After a long, distinguished and revered career in Hollywood, Jeff Bridges gets his due from the Academy voters in 2010.  He has been nominated 5 times without a win, but Bridges has been parading through Hollywood like a humble king during this year's awards season. 

Most importantly, he won the Screen Actors Guild Award for Best Actor, which is significant, since many SAG voters also vote for the Academy Awards.  It's akin to being a presidential candidate who wins the New Hampshire primary or Iowa caucuses.  Voters have spoken and given you credibility.  

Call it a Lifetime Achievement Award if you will, but Bridges has support from the acting community and many people think he deserves one of these after being passed over a few times (which can influence voters), so he's walking away with an Oscar on March 7. 

Best Actress

Sandra Bullock (The Blind Side)

Meryl Streep (Julie and Julia)

Carey Mulligan (An Education)

Gabourey Sidibe (Precious)

Helen Mirren (The Last Station)

And the winner will be ... Sandra Bullock for The Blind Side. 

Sandra Bullock wins unless she is caught driving drunk down Ventura Highway, wearing a George W. Bush costume, while singing Milli Vanilli songs to a kidnapped and crying Dakota Fanning.  Even then, it only reduces her chances to 50-50.  

When the campaign season started, I figured Bullock had a decent chance at getting a nomination, but she has rallied throughout the last few months to emerge from possible nominee to frontrunner.  

She has won the Screen Actors Guild Award for Best Actress, tied with Meryl Streep for the same award at the Critics Choice Awards, and has lots of goodwill built up in Hollywood to propel her to a victory. 

People want to see her win because she's still America's Sweetheart no matter how many bombs like All About Steve or Divine Secrets of the Ya-Ya Sisterhood she might make.    

Sure, Meryl Streep holds the record among actors with 16 Oscar nominations, but she hasn't won since 1983 (and only won twice out of fifteen previous nominations, the only person who strikes out more is me at the club on a Saturday night).

Best Supporting Actress

Mo'Nique (Precious)

Anna Kendrick (Up In The Air)

Vera Farmiga (Up In The Air)

Maggie Gyllenhaal (Crazy Heart)

Penelope Cruz (Nine)

And the winner will be ... Mo'Nique for Precious.

What can you say?  Mo'Nique was magnificent in ways many didn't know she could be, and has won every award out there because of it.  You can't deny obvious genius when it occurs right before your eyes. 

Penelope can sit back and relax because she has won before. 

Gyllenhaal should be thankful she got an invitation to the party as she rode Jeff Bridges's coattails to a nomination.  

Kendrick is in the Twilight movies, and has a Tony Award nomination to go with the Oscar nomination, so that will get her plenty of work in the next few years. 

I only cry for Farmiga.  For every role in a movie like The Departed, Up In The Air and Nothing But The Truth, she gets stuck in a howler like Orphan or Joshua. 

Best Supporting Actor

Christopher Plummer (The Last Station)

Christoph Waltz (Inglourious Basterds)

Woody Harrelson (The Messenger)

Matt Damon (Invictus)

Stanley Tucci (The Lovely Bones)

And the winner will be ... Christoph Waltz for Inglourious Basterds.

I am starting to sound like a broken record, but, like Mo'Nique, Waltz has won EVERYTHING.  He came out of European television and theaters to shock and amaze audiences as the cold, nasty, oddly charming and chillingly intelligent Nazi villain when everyone who went to see Inglourious Basterds was looking forward to seeing Brad Pitt, but walked away talking about him.