Sometimes, you make a prediction early in the season, and start to regret it every day until the Oscars are handed out.
That's how I feel about Best Picture.
I'll be a man and stick by the prediction, but I know I will be wrong.
That's how I feel about Best Picture.
I'll be a man and stick by the prediction, but I know I will be wrong.
Best Picture
The Social Network - Predicted Winner
Black Swan
The Fighter
True Grit
Toy Story 3
Inception
The Kids Are All Right
127 Hours
The King's Speech
Winter's Bone
Yes, I am already starting to regret the prediction, which I made back in January with a bravado and gusto that will lead to my embarrassment on Sunday night.
In Oscar history, the movie with the most nominations wins Best Picture about 70% of the time, and The King's Speech leads the pack this year with 12 nominations. Even True Grit surpassed The Social Network with 10 noms versus 8 for our little Facebook movie.
Also, a groundswell of support is starting to emerge as The King's Speech won the Producer's Guild Award for Best Picture, Best Director for Tom Hooper at the Director's Guild Awards, and Best Ensemble at the Screen Actors Guild Awards. That's a big deal since many of those voters will vote for the Oscars. Several big deals if you start counting them. Yes, The King's Speech will win and make me look like a fool.
It was supposed to be a race between The King's Speech and The Social Network, but SONY, the studio behind The Social Network, usually handles Adam Sandler movies instead of prestige, Oscar movies, and it has shown during campaign season. The couldn't keep up The Social Network's momentum from all of the wins the movie took home early in the awards season, while The Weinstein Company has worked the awards season like a successful politician works the primary campaign season. The Social Network is Hillary Clinton. The King's Speech is President Obama.
Now, The Fighter is emerging as the possible upset winner. A silent groundswell has been building in Hollywood for the Mark Wahlberg film, supporting cast members Melissa Leo, Amy Adams and Christian Bale all got nominations, with many, including me, picking Leo and Bale to win. However, I think the silent groundswell stays silent. I don't think it is possible for The Fighter to win, but it would inject an element of surprise into the ceremony.
The Social Network - Predicted Winner
Black Swan
The Fighter
True Grit
Toy Story 3
Inception
The Kids Are All Right
127 Hours
The King's Speech
Winter's Bone
Yes, I am already starting to regret the prediction, which I made back in January with a bravado and gusto that will lead to my embarrassment on Sunday night.
In Oscar history, the movie with the most nominations wins Best Picture about 70% of the time, and The King's Speech leads the pack this year with 12 nominations. Even True Grit surpassed The Social Network with 10 noms versus 8 for our little Facebook movie.
Also, a groundswell of support is starting to emerge as The King's Speech won the Producer's Guild Award for Best Picture, Best Director for Tom Hooper at the Director's Guild Awards, and Best Ensemble at the Screen Actors Guild Awards. That's a big deal since many of those voters will vote for the Oscars. Several big deals if you start counting them. Yes, The King's Speech will win and make me look like a fool.
It was supposed to be a race between The King's Speech and The Social Network, but SONY, the studio behind The Social Network, usually handles Adam Sandler movies instead of prestige, Oscar movies, and it has shown during campaign season. The couldn't keep up The Social Network's momentum from all of the wins the movie took home early in the awards season, while The Weinstein Company has worked the awards season like a successful politician works the primary campaign season. The Social Network is Hillary Clinton. The King's Speech is President Obama.
Now, The Fighter is emerging as the possible upset winner. A silent groundswell has been building in Hollywood for the Mark Wahlberg film, supporting cast members Melissa Leo, Amy Adams and Christian Bale all got nominations, with many, including me, picking Leo and Bale to win. However, I think the silent groundswell stays silent. I don't think it is possible for The Fighter to win, but it would inject an element of surprise into the ceremony.
