Willie Waffle is the movie critic for people who hate movie critics.

Oscar Nominee Predictions - Best Actor

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danieldaylewislincoln.jpgAre you ready for some history on Oscar night?  It might happen in the Best Actor category. 

No man has ever won Best Actor three times.  The list of men who have won twice is substantial (Tom Hanks, Jack Nicholson, Sean Penn, Gary Cooper, Dustin Hoffman, Marlon Brando and more).  One of them has a chance to win this year, and he looks like an unbeatable frontrunner.  That would be Daniel Day-Lewis.  Is this the year for Mr. Lincoln?

Who will be nominated to lose to Daniel Day-Lewis?

The predicted nominees are:

Daniel Day-Lewis (Lincoln)

Hugh Jackman (Les Miserables)

Denzel Washington (Flight)

John Hawkes (The Sessions)

Bradley Cooper (Silver Linings Playbook)

Of those men, only Hugh Jackman has a chance against Daniel Day-Lewis, and that is only because they have completely opposite approaches to the campaign. 

Day-Lewis doesn't do interviews, doesn't campaign, doesn't do anything other than let the work speak for itself.

Hugh Jackman will work harder than anyone in the business to help the movie and help himself.  The number of times I have seen him on TV or in some newspaper interview even exceeds the number of times Lindsay Lohan has been arrested.  

If Jackman can charm the Oscar voters, and he's one very charming fellow, it might be the biggest upset since Marisa Tomei won Best Supporting Actress for My Cousin Vinnie. 

Washington, like Day-Lewis, is an amazing actor, and gets a nomination here because he made Flight about so much more than the basic plot.

Hawkes and Cooper are the two who have the most to worry about on January 10.  Hawkes is fantastic, amazing, fabulous and wonderful in The Sessions, but how many of you reading right now are saying, "What was The Sessions?"  It's a great movie no one saw.  Only because he was so skilled in taking an icky premise and making it one full of wonder and love did he and Hunt start to emerge as Oscar contenders. 

Cooper faces a problem of credibility and expectation.  He's a good actor, but most consider him to be a pretty face who is a movie star, instead of an actor.  It's unfair, since his work proves he has talent, but I also think Cooper will benefit from Silver Linings Playbook, Jennifer Lawrence and Robert De Niro all earning Oscar nominations, as well as Cooper getting nominations from the Screen Actors Guild and Critics Choice Awards.

Joaquin Phoenix might sneak in and get a nomination for his fantastic performance in The Master, but the movie flopped at the box office, and he his not following the rules from the Hugh Jackman School of Charming People to help your movie and get yourself a nomination. 

Oscar Nominee Predictions - Best Actress

Oscar Nominee Predictions - Best Supporting Actor

Oscar Nominee Predictions - Best Supporting Actress