Willie Waffle is the movie critic for people who hate movie critics.

Oscar Predictions - Best Picture - Is Argo Marching To Inevitability?

|

argoposter.jpgWinning Best Picture at the Oscars is one of those dreams that only lives in the deepest recesses of every actor's, producer's, director's, crew member's, and studio flack's wildest fantasies.  That, and being so rich Hollywood starlets throw themselves at you even though you look like Harvey Weinstein or Ron Howard.

A win here puts you in the league and hush-filled rarefied air of movies like Schindler's ListTitanic, Gandhi, The Godfather, Casablanca, and Around The World In 80 Days (OK, they can't all be Casablanca, so give the guy behind Around The World In 80 Days a break).

Winning Best Picture means you can finally make your dream project, if you can convince Charlize Theron or George Clooney to star in it.  And, you can get that Twilight kid's autograph backstage because he sees you carrying the big bald statue and wants to know what it's like to touch an Oscar.

What movie will be Best Picture this year?

Your nominees are:

Argo

Lincoln

Beasts of the Southern Wild

Les Miserables

Django Unchained

Amour

Life of Pi

Silver Linings Playbook

Zero Dark Thirty


About 75% of the time, the movie with the most nominations will win Best Picture, and, this year, that movie is Lincoln with 12 nominations.  It started off as the big frontrunner, but Oscar fortunes have a strange way of changing without any warning. 

Lincoln has been fading faster than a cheap pair of jeans manufactured in Guatemala.  I thought it was a lock on the day the nominations were announced, but something funny happened on the way to the Dolby Theatre. 

Being the best movie of the year doesn't always equate to winning Best Picture at the Oscars.  Sometimes, fate and momentum change the minds of voters, and, this year, Argo is the movie that is coming out of nowhere to shock and awe the Oscar night viewers.

Ben Affleck's snub in the Best Director category has caused a groundswell of support unlike any we have ever seen during the Oscar campaign season.  Actors, who make up 22% of the Oscar voters, have rallied around Affleck, since many feel the Directors Branch snubbed him out of some sort of jealousy of a pretty boy actor moving in on their directing turf and not being ready to be celebrated until he pays his dues (I have seen Gigli and Surviving  Christmas, so I will testify he has paid his dues, mine and yours).

Since The Snub Heard Around The World, Argo has won The Critics Choice Award, The Golden Globe, The Screen Actors Guild Award, and The British Academy Award.  Affleck even won The Directors Guild Award for Best Director!  Argo is on a roll and set to make some Oscar history.         

Only three times in Oscar history has a movie won Best Picture when its director was not nominated for Best Director.  Two of those happened way back in 1929 and 1932.  The last one was back when Driving Miss Daisy inexplicably won Best Picture back in 1990. 

Look for Argo to make it 4 on Oscar night.

Enjoy the show!

Oscar Prediction: Best Actor

Oscar Prediction: Best Actress

Oscar Prediction: Best Supporting Actor

Oscar Prediction: Best Supporting Actress

Oscar Prediction:  Best Director