Willie Waffle is the movie critic for people who hate movie critics.

Oscar Predictions - Best Supporting Actor - Will Grumpy Tommy Lee Start To Smile?

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waltzunchained.jpgThis year's list of potential nominees for Best Supporting Actor resembles a Hall of Fame style compilation of some of the greatest actors who have ever worked in the business, which is why this is the hardest category to predict this year. 

How do you pick between Tommy Lee Jones, Robert De Niro, Alan Arkin, and more?

I am going to try.

Who will win Best Supporting Actor on Sunday?


Your nominees are:

Tommy Lee Jones (Lincoln)

Philip Seymour Hoffman (The Master)

Robert De Niro (Silver Linings Playbook)

Alan Arkin (Argo)

Christoph Waltz (Django Unchained)

That's a powerhouse line up!  Each one of them has won an Oscar or two before, and each one can make an argument why his performance was good enough to win (or has something going for it to make Oscar voters feel good about checking their name on the ballot).

De Niro, always on the list of greatest actors, has not been nominated for an Oscar in 21 years and hasn't won in 32 years!  I am a bit surprised he is getting this attention for Silver Linings Playbook, which is a great movie where I felt Jennifer Lawrence and Bradley Cooper had the standout performances, and he was along for the ride, but it is nice to see him doing something respectable again.  If he wins, it would be the longest period between wins since Marlon Brando won for On The Waterfront and The Godfather.  Lots of people are buzzing about this, which could make him a sentimental choice.    

Arkin livened up and gave some comic relief to Argo, and benefits from the movie being held in such high regard.  It is the movie with the most momentum right now, and he could ride the coattails to a second win.   

Jones, who I think gave his best performance of 2012 in Hope Springs, has been the frontrunner, but recently has been coming under attack for being the most Texan sounding Pennsylvania congressman in the history of the country and movies.  This was Civil War-era America, but Tommy Lee sounds like a guy who just stepped out of the front doors of The Alamo. 

However, Disney has engaged in the most aggressive awards campaign I have ever seen, which led to the movie receiving 12 nominations, the most of any movie this year.

He also won the Screen Actors Guild award for Best Supporting Actor, and the man who has won that the last 5 years in a row has won the Oscar, but Lincoln has been losing momentum since the day the nominations were announced. 

Yet, I am picking the upset.  I think Christoph Waltz wins for Django Unchained.   

He won a few years ago for Inglorious Basterds, and he steals the show in Django Unchained.  Plus, winning The Golden Globe and British Academy award will give him the push he needs.   

Tomorrow, Best Actress.

Best Supporting Actress Prediction