Willie Waffle is the movie critic for people who hate movie critics.

Oscar Predictions - Best Supporting Actress - Anne Will Live That Dream She Dreamed


hathawaylesmiserables.jpgIt's the only time of the year when a bald man is the most desired object of affection in Hollywood. 

Yes, it is Oscar time! 

After months of campaigns, predictions, prognostication and, in some cases, great movie making, it all comes to a conclusion Sunday night when Seth MacFarlane hosts the biggest of the awards shows and they start handing out those big bald golden statues. 

Who will win? 

I'll be making my predictions all week long, and we start with one of the easiest picks.

Who will win Best Supporting Actress?

Your Nominees:

Anne Hathaway (Les Miserables)

Sally Field (Lincoln)

Helen Hunt (The Sessions)

Jacki Weaver (Silver Linings Playbook)

Amy Adams (The Master)

Hathaway not only secured a nomination, but won the whole category last summer when Universal released a trailer for Les Miserables featuring her stunningly singing I Dreamed A Dream.  It is the movie's highlight.  It was completely unexpected from her.  It started a buzz that was deafening.  And, only Helen Hunt had that much of an impact on her movie. 

Hathaway's only competition is Sally Field in Lincoln.  Field has been nominated twice before, and won both times (because they like her, the Oscar voters really really like her), but the movie doesn't need her to be a success.  It's a nice performance, and she makes the most of the two scenes where she is called upon to do some acting, but it wasn't nearly as stunning as Hathaway's Stop-The-Show rendition of the most anticipated song in Les Miserables.   

Frankly, I am shocked Hunt is in the Supporting Actress Category.  She should be considered the female lead of The Sessions, where she plays a sex surrogate helping a disabled 40-year old man lose his virginity, but who has seen The Sessions?  That's why she won't win.    

That's also the issue with Amy Adams in The Master.  Like The Sessions, it is much ballyhooed, but didn't get seen by many.  The movie's popularity in LA is what got her a nod, as well as Adams' reputation and starpower (she has 4 nominations now, look out Meryl Streep!).   

Jacki Weaver got to ride the Silver Linings Playbook coattails to a nomination, and that feels about right.  She is very good in the movie, but it's not the performance you remember after seeing it.

Hathaway also has history on her side.  In 9 out of the last 10 years, the winner of Best Supporting Actress at the Screen Actors Guild awards went on to win the Oscar.  That's very telling because many of these voters also vote for Oscar, and actors make up about 22% of the Academy's voters.  They have shown you how they are going to vote.

Also, Hathaway won The Critic's Choice Award and The Golden Globe, helping to cement her status as a frontrunner.  And, she just won the British version of the Oscar, and 1/6th of those voters vote for Oscar.     

It's Anne Hathaway in a runaway on Sunday night.    

Tomorrow, Best Supporting Actor.